OSU expectations, statistical probability

A CO-WORKER OF mine, a Duck, bangs the same drum that you so often see on the message boards: Mike Riley will never get Oregon State over the hump and into a BCS Bowl game. He criticizes the OSU playcalling, shakes his head in a condescending manner. And I roll my eyes and compare him to the rich kid in school who acts like he has anything to do with the trust fund his grandfather bequeathed him.